While the country waits for Rishi Sunak to stop laughing and finally set a date for this year’s General Election, pollsters are having a field day predicting the results.
Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the power to call a General Election was restored to the Prime Minister after a period when it was at the behest of the House of Commons, but the latest a Parliament can be dissolved has to be on the fifth anniversary of the day it first met.
That means the PM actually has until December 17 to name the date, with 25 working days allowed to prepare, meaning the next General Election must be held by January 28 2025.
Asked recently when the UK would be going to the polls by a BBC local radio presenter, Mr Sunak laughed off her questions, prompting the interviewer to ask: “Why is that funny?”
There have been several major polls attempting to cast a fortune-teller’s gaze over the eventual day when we put our crosses on the ballot papers, with the result of the newly formed Harpenden and Berkhamsted constituency being particular volatile.
In January, a survey commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance from YouGov MRP predicted the Liberal Democrats romping to victory with 38 per cent of the vote, and the Conservatives trailing behind on 30 per cent.
But a more recent poll of 15,000 people by agency Survation on behalf of the Best for Britain campaign group said Labour was on track to win the seat with 37 per cent, the Tories on 35 per cent, and the Lib Dems only on 15 per cent.
Then no sooner had the results of the Survation survey been sampled, but YouGov was back with a detailed seat-by-seat analysis of potential results, this time giving Harpenden and Berkhamsted to the Conservatives with 34.9 per cent of the vote, compared to the Lib Dems on 24.8% and Labour on 22.1%.
Tory candidate Nigel Gardner responded: “The polls are coming in thick and fast, with two mega ones last week – each polling more than 15,000 people. The Survation poll saw Labour a few hundred votes ahead in Harpenden and Berkhamsted, whilst in the YouGov one I managed to come out on top.
“Of course the only result that matters is how the good people of Harpenden and Berkhamsted and our amazing villages vote on polling day. And between now and then I am working as hard as hard as I can to show that I will be a hard-working, responsible, common sense, local MP – who will look after the interests of all our residents whatever their politics. And to show that a Starmer Government will be bad for our economy, and a disaster for our Green Belt.”
Symon Vegro, chair of Harpenden and Berkhamsted Labour Party said: “Some polls will show us winning in the constituency, some polls will show us coming third, but the very fact that the Lib Dems are so relentless in their messaging that Labour cannot win shows how worried they are!
“If you look at the overall picture Labour is still in a strong and improving position. Even this poll – which is not consistent with other polls in recent weeks – shows that the Lib Dems – at best – are level pegging with Labour in this constituency.
“The choice at the General Election is between another five years of Conservative chaos or a decade of national renewal with Labour. The Lib Dems have no plan for government and no plan for Harpenden and Berkhamsted.
“Voters in Harpenden and Berkhamsted should not buy into the Lib Dem myth that Labour is not interested in this seat.”
Victoria Collins, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary candidate for Harpenden and Berkhamsted, also responded to the latest survey, echoing similar sentiments made by Nigel: “The only poll that matters is when voters go to the ballot box for the General Election. Across Harpenden and Berkhamsted, voters are already showing their support for the Liberal Democrats with incredible local election success. We now have 80 per cent of the councillors right across the seat from Tring, Berkhamsted and Harpenden to Redbourn, Wheathampstead and Jersey Farm.
“The fact that local MPs, such as Bim Afolami, have run off to stand in other areas, reflects how the Conservatives know this is no longer a safe seat. The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, are working hard for local people day-in day-out to give them an MP who actually stands up for them.”
For current Hitchin and Harpenden MP Bim Afolami, the future looks even more grim, with calls for the Tory grassroots to deselect him before any General Election. The publication Conservative Post has drawn up a list of 10 current Tory MPs who it feels are not “conservative” enough, with Mr Afolami at the very top.
Mr Afolami’s office was contacted for comment on this story but failed to respond.