The Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates for the new constituency of Harpenden and Berkhamsted have dismissed suggestions that Labour could win the seat in the next General Election.
A new poll of 15,000 people by agency Survation on behalf of the Best for Britain campaign group was published in the Sunday Times at the weekend, and suggests Labour could secure a landslide victory, with the Tories winning less than 100 seats.
In Harpenden and Berkhamsted, which includes Redbourn and Wheathampstead, the results would be:
Labour percentage of vote: 37%
Conservatives: 35%
Lib Dems: 15%
Reform 6%
Green 3%
That is despite the fact that Labour have yet to select a candidate to run for the seat.
Tory Parliamentary hopeful Nigel Gardner said a Labour victory was a vote for higher taxes and Green Belt development: “This poll shows the country and Harpenden and our villages are at a crucial juncture, as the choice at the General Election gets ever closer.
“We know that a Labour government would slap VAT on school fees. That won’t just hit hard pressed parents who sacrifice so much for their children’s education. It will also increase pressure on our already oversubscribed top local state schools, and damage our local economy.
“We know that a Labour government would concrete over much of what’s left our Green Belt. Keir Stamer has even declared he’s proud to be a YIMBY. We know that Labour deep in its soul believes in an ever larger state, and higher and higher taxes.
“So the choice people face here in the General Election is – do you want a taxing, super state Starmer government. Or do you want what I’m standing for – which is a platform of responsible, middle ground, common sense local conservatism.
“Reform and the Lib Dems are neither here nor there. If you vote Reform, you let in that Starmer Government. If you vote Lib Dem, it’s the same – you let a Labour MP in locally, and that Starmer government nationally.”
Victoria Collins, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary candidate said: “Talking to local residents everyday, they know that Harpenden and Berkhamsted is a two-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, and that Labour can’t win here. Even Labour themselves have declared Harpenden and Berkhamsted a non-battleground seat and are the last party to choose a candidate. Harpenden and Berkhamsted deserves a hard-working local MP to stand up for them after years of Conservative neglect.”
Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats consider the fight for Harpenden and Berkhamsted is between themselves rather than Labour.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Liberal Democrats have around 80% of the council seats and in the local elections won 50% or the popular vote, the highest of any party locally. They took control of Dacorum and Harpenden Town Council last year, while continuing to gain from the Conservatives in the Harpenden Rural by-election.
In contrast, Labour don’t have even one district or county councillor, and their volunteer platform is actually steering Harpenden and Berkhamsted volunteers to campaign in Stevenage.
Several other polls, including the YouGov poll this year – the most detailed poll in five years – have showed there would be a Liberal Democrat win in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Whereas the Survation model of polling appears to produce uniform results, it underplays the tactical voting that is most likely to take place in the next General Election and as seen in by-elections such as Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire which saw substantial Liberal Democrat gains.
But Symon Vegro, chair of Harpenden and Berkhamsted Labour Party believes they have a good chance of winning: “The Lib Dems are currently polling less than Reform nationally.
“Here in Harpenden and Berkhamsted they have quite literally been flooding the constituency with material – sometimes more than one piece of literature arrived on a single day! The Lib Dems message that – “Labour cannot win here” does not match the facts – the recent Survation Poll in the Sunday Times, shows Labour winning the seat, with over double the number of votes of the Lib Dems.”
Symon added: “Perhaps the people of Harpenden and Berkhamsted haven’t forgotten that the Lib Dems put the Tories in power which led to austerity, and that they want their MP to be from a party that won’t be an irrelevance in the new Parliament? The message is clear – Labour can win here.”